THE BIG SQUEEZE
For decades, we’ve known it was coming and now it’s here. Moore’s Law—which is really just a special case of the “learning curve”—can no longer drive the 30% per year reduction in cost per transistor, beginning with the 20/16/14 nm generation. Either we find innovations beyond just shrinking feature sizes and increasing wafer diameter or we slow our progress down the learning curve, introducing innovative new electronic capabilities at a slower rate than in the past.
There are lots of alternatives, including a reduction in profitability of the members of the supply chain, to keep the progress continuing at the same rate as the last fifty years. Dr. Rhines will review the mathematical basis for the dilemma and, with his brand of humor, provide a roadmap of possibilities for the decade ahead.